06/05/2025

Ohio would see more than $1 billion in revenue if Medicaid expansion group stays, New Study Finds

Source: The Ohio Capital Journal 

A new study of Ohio Medicaid showed the Affordable Care Act expansion group of nearly 770,000 would bring the state an economic benefit of $1 billion if it survives cuts at the federal and state level. But Ohio Republicans might include a trigger in the state budget to cut the expansion if Medicaid budget cuts come down from Congress.

The Ohio Senate is expected to release its proposed state operating budget soon, a proposal that will then be compared to and combined with the Ohio House’s version already passed last month, before a final draft heads to the governor for his signature.

The Ohio House’s version of the budget absorbed a proposal by Governor Mike DeWine in his executive budget that creates a trigger effect, eliminating Group VIII, or the Medicaid expansion eligibility group, “if the federal government sets the federal medical assistance percentage below (its current level of) 90%,” according to budget documents.

The expansion group, which was introduced administratively in Ohio in 2014, represents adults aged 19 to 64 who earn less than 138% of the federal poverty level but aren’t eligible for Medicaid in other categories. For a family of two, the poverty level stands at $21,150 in Ohio and other contiguous states.

The federal budget, which is being reviewed by the U.S. Senate, could include a larger state contribution to the Medicaid program than seen in the past, dropping the federal contribution, called the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage from its current share of 90%. If that is passed into law, and if the state budget is passed and signed with the trigger in place, the expansion population would face cuts.

According to the Health Policy Institute of Ohio’s (HPIO) newest policy brief, written by Amy Rohling McGee, the 10% the state currently pays to support Medicaid stands in juxtaposition to revenue and state savings generated by the program.

After accounting for the savings the state nets as a part of the program and revenue created, researchers found that the state share is effectively 1.4%.

“Discontinuing expansion would save substantially less than the state share amount, it would reduce federal funds coming to Ohio by over $42 billion over five years, and would leave an estimated 435,000 Ohioans without coverage,” Amy Rohling McGee wrote as part of the HPIO’s 2025 Ohio Medicaid Expansion Study.

Read the full article in The Ohio Capital Journal.